Field of Nightmares
By David Glenn Cox
Mark Twain once said, "Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are pliable." It is in our human nature to remain optimistic even when fate deals us a cruel hand. A person who loses a diamond ring in the manure pile must remain optimistic about their prospects. Even without success they will point positively to the progress they have made in their search.
So I don't fault the Bureau of Labor Statistics, they just make the pretzel dough and leave the twisting up to the politicians. This is a government however which will kill the messenger, so they must highlight good news. So it may be reported that even though the city of Chicago was reduced to ashes Mrs. O'Leary's cow escaped without injury and is resting comfortably.
Bureau of Labor Statistics- Payroll employment up in October 2010
"Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 151,000 in October, reflecting job gains in mining and a number of service-providing industries."
This would seem to be a good employment number provided that's all you look at is this month's number. If you look back at the previous four months you'll see that the economy lost nearly twice that 151,000 number and you'll further note that it is only the seventh month of job gains in the previous twenty six months.
"Within professional and business services, employment in temporary help services continued to increase in October, with a gain of 35,000. Temporary help services has added 451,000 jobs since a recent low in September 2009."
Who needs a career when you can work as a temp? No benefits, no future but a nice temporary respite from the rigors of unemployment.
"Within leisure and hospitality, a job loss in arts, entertainment, and recreation (-26,000) in October offset a gain in food services and drinking place employment (+24,000). The food services industry has added 143,000 jobs since a recent low in December 2009."
I can hear it now as the unemployed actors practice, "would you like, er, um, line please! Oh yes, would you like fries with that?"
"Government employment overall was little change in October. Employment in local government, excluding education, decreased by 14,000 over the month and has fallen by 123,000 over the past 12 months."
Little change? 14,000 is a gain of more than ten percent of the total in thirty days. It represents a forty percent increase in average month over month job loss numbers and it excludes education. The cow said, "Moo."
The strange case of the disappearing work force;
In September of this year the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the civilian work force at 154,158,000 in October they reported the civilian work force at 153,904,000. Somehow 254,000 workers just disappeared from the labor force. Alien obductions perhaps?
The mystery deepens as the number of employed workers was reported as 139,391,000 in September yet in October that number had fallen to 139,061,000. Three hundred and thirty thousand less workers were employed yet the unemployment rate has stayed the same at 9.6 percent? How is that possible?
The mystery is solved by a catch all category "Not in the labor force." That number jumped by 462,000 in just thirty days or more than three times as much as that promising new jobs number. How do you go from employed to "Not in the labor force" in thirty days? No one knows, it's like Oz, you just find yourself there one day asking directions from talking scarecrows.
The number of persons working part time for economic reasons dropped by 318,000 that would seem to be a good number. Except that the number reported as employed part time because they couldn't find full time work has risen by over half a million workers since October of 2009.
The numbers of those unemployed for less than five weeks has dropped by 234,000 replaced by those unemployed 5 to 14 weeks up by 108,000 and by those unemployed 15 to 26 weeks up by 183,000. These two categories have been relatively stable year over year but for those unemployed over 27 weeks the number is up 83,000 month over month and has been averaging half a million per month. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has just announced that it will begin tracking those unemployed for more than two years. Just another sign that things are looking up.
Marginally attached workers up nearly 300,000 year over year and discouraged workers are up over 400,000 year over year.
"Real average hourly earnings for all employees fell 0.1 percent from August to September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This decrease stems from a 0.1 percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), while average hourly earnings remained unchanged."
Ben Bernanke's quantitative easing plans to add $600 billion into the US economy and is designed to lower the value of the dollar making US exports more competitive. Sadly, our economy imports more than it exports which means quantitative easing will increase inflation and wages aren't likely to keep pace. Hey, but we added a 151,000 jobs and so what if most of them are low paying.
The wholesale inventory levels have risen for nine consecutive months and I can tell you as a former salesman that that isn't a good number. Businesses in the wholesale trade buy on speculation and buy on forecast. They buy expecting to find that diamond ring and a full warehouse means they aren't making any money or they are paying back borrowed money.
151,000 jobs divided by fifty states or 3,020 jobs per state. Sure does look good so long as you don't notice that New Jersey lost 15,000 jobs last between July and August. Never mind that California lost 9,240 jobs between September and October or that since January of 2008 California has lost 838,522 jobs. Yea ha! 151,000 news jobs nationwide! Were rolling now, unless of course you count petty details like Florida losing another 13,764 Jobs last month.
In the states where employment is listed as up it is up by hundreds. In the states where unemployment is listed as up it is up by thousands and yet the numbers of workers disappeared continues to grow. In New Jersey the number of workers listed as employed last month was 4,077,683 in January of 2008 it was listed as 4,285,415 how did 207,703 workers vanish? Where did they go? In California the number employed in January of 2008 was 17,072,292 and last month was 15,971,506. One million one hundred thousand just vanished from the labor force.
Maybe it is like the movie "Field of Dreams" only in reverse. "If you build it they will come" and if you stop counting them they will go. Let's call it a field of nightmares, let's only count the good numbers. Let's only talk about finding that diamond ring and ignore the digging misery of millions. The other day as I walked to the library I passed a man digging through dumpsters looking for scrap metal. Could that be one of the new green jobs? The next day I saw another, during the last depression they called them ragmen what would they call them today? Sanitation entrepreneurs?
Here in the Industrial park not one business is flourishing, not one. The alcohol fuel business which I would have considered one of the strongest is going out. The cabinet shop next door is doing piece work and the brick plant has worked one day in a month. On the other side of me, the body shop has no cars in their parking lot waiting for repair. Yesterday, the owner was cleaning up his lot because most of his workers have been laid off.
Barack Obama fresh off of his election pummeling jetted off to India and Indonesia to promote of all things free trade. Sure, why not? When tax cuts don't work and dumping $600 billion in at the top of the economy doesn't work. Run off to the third world to sell them the products the people at home can no longer afford.